Everyone Wants a Lower Price, But What About the Impact of Interest Rates?

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When shopping for a home, the natural tendency of any buyer is to want to pay the lowest price possible maybe even buying a foreclosure. It’s important to keep in mind, however, that the sales price is not the only factor that determines what the monthly payment will be. In fact, the impact of higher interest rates can easily nullify any benefit of waiting for a lower price.

Why Should I Rush to Buy?
While you may have heard discussions in the media about the decline of property values in many markets, the rate of decline appears to be stabilizing.

That being said, it would not be unreasonable for buyers to want to hold out for an additional decline of 10%, hoping to capture the best possible price. However, as property values have declined in many areas to 2003 levels or lower, waiting longer to pull the trigger could be a mistake. Many markets are reporting that lower property values have been bringing out investors and the result has been multiple offers on many properties. Properties priced correctly are not declining and, in fact, are creating a lot of interest.

Interest Rate Complacency
The problem is that many home buyers have been lulled into a sense of complacency because of extremely low interest rates. Since the Federal Reserve initiated its program of buying mortgage-backed securities, which control the rates people pay for their home loans, rates had been range bound, bouncing between 4.50% to 5.00% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan.

But buyers shouldn’t be confused by this. These rates are artificially low! Historically, interest rates have been above 6.00%. And any rate obtained below this number is a great deal, especially on homes with price tags from 2003!

Markets are Unforgiving
The last two weeks of May showed just how unforgiving the markets can be for people who choose to procrastinate. In just five days, interest rates from many lenders increased anywhere from .50% to 1.00% as fixed-income investors demanded more for their money.

For anyone who was waiting for prices to drop even more, a 1.00% increase in interest rate would bring a higher monthly principal and interest payment on a home, even if the price of that same home had fallen an additional 10% in value.

If you are waiting for prices to fall even lower, be aware that while holding out for a lower price may help you win the battle, you could lose the war in terms of monthly payments and overall affordability. With the Federal Reserve scheduled to end its buying of mortgage-backed securities this year, rates only stand to go higher for those that wait. In fact, interest rates are already on the rise and could go higher from here.

Clock is Ticking on Free Money
If you have clients who are planning on purchasing their first home this year, be sure to let them know that they need to take possession before 12/01/2009 to be eligible for a tax credit of up to $8,000. In a survey conducted in March by Move.com, nearly 50% of home buyers are currently unaware that this free money exists in the marketplace. And since over 50% of all buyers are first-timers in today’s market, this could impact a lot of your clients.

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Rising Mortgage Rates Could End Refi Boom – Get Qualfied

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Monday, June 1, 2009 10:10 AM

NEW YORK – Roger Wald recently discovered he would save $25,000 a year if he refinanced or sought a loan modification for his five-year mortgage at 4.75 percent. Wald, an auto body repairman in Sarasota, Fla., could have gotten that rate last month.

But like many homeowners, he waited for rates to fall further. Now, he’s worried he missed his chance.

Mortgage rates at some lenders spiked by as much as 1 percent on Wednesday and saw little relief on Thursday, according to mortgage brokers.

“The 4.75 percent my broker quoted two weeks ago? There’s no way I’m going to get that now,” said Wald, 49.

The fear dogging homeowners and investors alike is that April’s record lows in mortgage rates may have come and gone.

The stock market has rallied since early March on the assumption the economy will rebound later this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been calling early signs of economic stabilization “green shoots” — and one of those shoots was a pickup in refinancing activity caused by tumbling mortgage rates.

But mortgage rates have rebounded sharply over the past few days as the nation’s growing debt raises concerns that government-backed assets could lose some of their value. It’s a trend that could slow both refinancing and home buying if it continues. Higher mortgage rates won’t necessarily derail the economy’s recovery, analysts say, but it certainly won’t help.

“If the Fed does not step in, you are going to see the ‘green shoots’ get frost bite,” said T.J. Marta, founder of financial research firm Marta on the Markets.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is back at 4.91 percent this week, up from 4.82 percent last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a record low of 4.78 percent in April thanks in large part to the Fed’s decision this year to buy as much as $1.25 trillion in mortgage securities and $300 billion in Treasury notes. So far, the Fed has bought $130.5 billion in government debt and more than $431 billion in mortgage securities.

Lower rates led to a surge in mortgage applications. Applications rose for five straight weeks between early March and early April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. And sales of both existing and new homes ticked higher from March to April, according to data released this week.

The Fed’s moves, however, have recently lost their effectiveness in the market. The yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasury notes have surged to a six-month high, and are nearly where they were a year ago. That’s significant because Treasury yields, or their annual rates of return, help set mortgage rates.

Mortgage activity is already starting to decline. Mortgage applications tumbled 14 percent in the week ended May 22 from the previous week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. Applications to refinance a loan were down almost 19 percent.

The Fed has many tools to bring rates down again. It could increase how much it intends to spend on Treasury purchases or mortgage-backed securities. It could also decide to simply buy longer-dated Treasurys, said David Ader, government bond strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. Recently, the Fed has been focusing on buying shorter-term government debt.

But if the Fed buys more Treasurys, some investors worry the central bank’s moves could have unintended consequences. That’s because when the Fed buys the debt that the government issues, it is essentially creating money. And that can cause inflation and weaken the value of the dollar against other major currencies.

A plunge in the dollar and high inflation might scare away foreign investors from buying U.S. debt, said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research. And that would cause Treasury yields to rise eventually anyway, he said.

“The Fed is really backed into a corner,” Larson said.

It would be preferable if the 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 3 percent, from its current 3.75, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. Such a pullback would help bring down mortgage rates and motivate people to refinance and buy homes.

When borrowers refinance to lower rates their monthly payments goes down so they have more free cash to spend on other things they need and want. And that’s good for businesses — consumer spending in accounts for about two-thirds of economic activity.

Dan Lawrence, Wald’s mortgage broker in Florida, said clients of his who have refinanced to a lower rate averaged between $300 and $400 in savings on their monthly mortgage payments, and almost assuredly pump some of those savings back into the economy.

“They’re going to go out dinner more. They’re going to buy shoes,” he said.

But many analysts, including Larson at Weiss Research, expect mortgage rates to head back toward 6 percent. The question, they say, is how fast.

Blogger: If you intend to buy hurry. Don’t wait for the bottom of the market to be in your rear view mirror. And if you are investing in deals then examine Foreclosures.

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Federal Reserve Surprises Financial Markets

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Here we go again, with the talking heads on financial news misinterpreting the impact of the Fed‘s actions on home loan rates.

Here’s the scoop. What the Fed just announced is huge – they have committed to buy another $750B in Mortgage Backed Securities, and $300B in Treasuries.

But what does this mean and why do you care?

Their actions provide a demand for Mortgage Backed Securities, which should help keep a ceiling on home loan rates moving much higher in the foreseeable future. That’s good news, for homebuyers who are seeing the bargains out there and understanding that now is the time to act. Good news for those who are ready to refinance and fight foreclosure too.

But an important distinction – this does not mean rates may move significantly lower. Depending on exactly which coupons the Fed purchases when they go shopping for Mortgage Backed Securities, their actions may keep a lid on rates, but not push them very much lower. And based on what they’ve been buying since the beginning of this year when they started their purchasing program – that is exactly how it has played out.

Present home loan rates are within inches of historic lows. What is keeping you on the sidelines from acting now to refinance and get some dollars back into your own pocket, where they belong – or moving forward to buy the home of your dreams, while it is still on sale?

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